‘They Don’t Love Him Anymore’: New Data Shows Trump’s Base Crumbling as Republicans Defy Him

Indiana Republicans delivered President Donald Trump an unexpected blow this week, rejecting his push to redraw the state’s congressional maps despite months of pressure from the White House. According to CNN data expert Harry Enten, the defeat highlights a deeper issue for Trump — slipping enthusiasm among his own base.

The GOP-controlled state Senate voted down the mid-decade redistricting measure on Thursday, even after intense lobbying and reports of threats aimed at lawmakers. The proposal was central to Trump’s broader effort to reshape congressional boundaries nationwide ahead of the 2026 midterms.

Enten appeared on CNN News Central to break down the political fallout, arguing that the Indiana vote reflects weakening loyalty among Trump’s 2024 supporters. He compared the moment to a famous line from Rocky IV, saying, “He’s not a machine… he’s a man.”

The data analyst pointed to a striking trend: in March, 66 percent of Trump’s 2024 voters said they “strongly approve” of him. That number has now fallen to just 50 percent. “Trump voters still like Donald Trump, but they don’t love him as much,” Enten said.

According to Enten, this drop in intensity gives Republican lawmakers more freedom to resist Trump’s demands. “There’s a permission structure to actually go against him,” he explained. “And that is exactly what you saw in Indiana.”

Trump has been urging GOP legislatures across the country to redraw congressional maps earlier than usual, aiming to improve the party’s chances of holding onto the House in 2026. But so far, those efforts have produced mixed results — and Indiana’s rejection is the most visible setback.

Enten also noted that the broader political environment has shifted sharply since Election Day. Before ballots were cast, Democrats and Republicans were running nearly even in forecasts of who might control the House after 2026.

But the landscape has since tilted decisively. “Democrats are now the clear favorites to take back the House — three to one,” Enten said. “That’s not a guarantee, but at this point, Democrats are in the driver’s seat.”

With Trump facing declining approval among his own voters and backlash within Republican ranks, Enten suggested that the Indiana revolt may be a sign of what’s to come as the 2026 cycle approaches.

Joseph Johnson

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