Trump Impeachment Odds Hit Record High as Iran War Fallout Grows
The odds of President Donald Trump being impeached during his second term reached a record high this week, according to betting market data, as political tensions rise following U.S. military strikes against Iran.
On Friday, the prediction market Kalshi showed a 67 percent probability that Trump will be impeached before the end of his current term, the highest level recorded since he returned to the White House. The figure represents an increase from roughly 62 percent a month earlier, reflecting growing political speculation surrounding the administration’s actions in the Middle East.
The surge in impeachment odds comes after the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iranian targets in a military campaign known as Operation Epic Fury. The strikes followed failed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program after Tehran refused to halt uranium enrichment, a key demand from Washington.
The conflict has intensified in recent days. Reports indicate at least six U.S. service members have been killed, while civilian casualties in the broader regional fighting have climbed above 1,100 deaths, according to estimates from the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.
Prediction markets measure traders’ expectations based on current events, but they do not necessarily reflect what will happen in reality. While Kalshi’s market shows rising expectations of impeachment, another betting platform, Polymarket, currently places the probability of Trump being impeached in 2026 at around 11 percent, slightly lower than last month’s estimate.
Despite speculation in betting markets, impeachment remains politically unlikely in the near term. Republicans currently control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and most GOP lawmakers remain supportive of the president.
Any impeachment effort would first require a majority vote in the House. Even if that hurdle were cleared, removal from office would require a two-thirds vote in the Senate, making conviction extremely difficult without significant bipartisan support.
The possibility of impeachment could depend heavily on the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections, when Democrats hope to regain control of the House. Some Republicans have warned that such a shift could trigger renewed impeachment attempts.
House Speaker Mike Johnson previously warned that losing the House majority could lead to renewed efforts by Democrats to remove the president from office.
Trump was impeached twice during his first presidency—once over his dealings with Ukraine and again following the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. In both cases, the Senate acquitted him.
While some Democratic lawmakers and commentators have renewed calls for impeachment following the Iran strikes, party leadership has so far shown little appetite for launching another impeachment process.
The White House has defended the military action, arguing that the strikes were necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and to protect U.S. national security interests.
For now, impeachment discussions remain largely speculative, but the issue is likely to remain part of the political debate as the Middle East conflict and domestic political tensions continue to unfold.
