Historian Robert Kagan Warns U.S. Is “Falling Under Dictatorship” Under Trump
U.S. historian Robert Kagan is warning that the United States and its allies are entering what he calls the most dangerous global era since World War II, arguing that American democracy is at serious risk under Donald Trump.
In an interview with the German publication Der Spiegel, Kagan said many Americans still fail to grasp the severity of what he views as democratic backsliding. “Very few Americans have understood what is happening,” he said, adding that some citizens support recent developments while others remain in denial.
Kagan, who previously wrote that authoritarianism in America would not arrive with “jackboots and salutes” but through a populist strongman, said he did not initially imagine the level of force now seen in domestic immigration enforcement operations. He described recent events involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in Minneapolis as part of a broader pattern of democratic erosion.
When asked directly whether he considers Trump a dictator, Kagan said the president is “certainly a would-be dictator” and argued that the United States already has “one foot in dictatorship.”
In a recent essay published in The Atlantic, Kagan wrote that Americans are entering a world that could make the Cold War “look like child’s play.” He argued that the post-1945 global order — largely shaped and guaranteed by the United States — is breaking down.
According to Kagan, a new multipolar world dominated by major powers such as Russia, China, and the United States is emerging. He contends that without American leadership supporting liberal democratic norms, global stability could weaken significantly.
Kagan also expressed concern about the future of NATO and European security. He warned that if the United States steps back from its traditional role, European nations may feel compelled to rearm independently, potentially reviving historic rivalries and tensions.
He specifically pointed to Germany’s position in Europe, suggesting that a rearmed Germany could create unease among neighboring states, including Poland, given the continent’s history of conflict prior to World War II.
Despite acknowledging that American institutions remain intact, Kagan questioned whether Congress, the courts, or the Republican Party would effectively check presidential power. He said he worries about the integrity of future elections and warned that Americans may underestimate the long-term implications of current political trends.
Read the full interview from Spiegel
