Trump’s Odds of Being Kicked Out of Office Hit Record High in Second Term
The chances of President Donald Trump being impeached and removed from office have climbed to their highest level of his second term, according to the popular prediction market Kalshi.
Kalshi’s tracker showed the probability rising to nearly 28.7 percent on Monday morning, up from 22.1 percent on April 2. The previous high was 24 percent, recorded on May 29 and again on August 12.
It’s important to note that prediction markets reflect what traders believe could happen—they are not official forecasts.
As the odds began rising earlier this month, hitting 26.7 percent on April 7, White House spokesperson David Ingle dismissed the speculation, telling Newsweek, “This is pathetic. Democrats have been talking about impeaching President Trump since before he was even sworn into office.”
Trump himself has previously praised prediction markets, saying last month that they were more accurate than traditional polling. Speaking to Max Raskin, a fellow at New York University School of Law, Trump said they had predicted his own victory “pretty right… by a landslide.”
Why It Matters
Trump has recently seen some decline in Republican support in polling, particularly following criticism over the Iran war, though the possibility of him actually being removed from office remains highly unlikely.
He is already the only U.S. president to have been impeached twice. In 2019, the House impeached him over abuse of power and obstruction of Congress tied to his dealings with Ukraine. In 2021, he was impeached again for incitement of insurrection following the January 6 Capitol attack. In both cases, the Senate acquitted him because the required two-thirds majority for conviction was not reached.
Why Removal Is Still Very Unlikely
Even though some Democrats have revived talk of a third impeachment during Trump’s second term, there is little real momentum behind it.
The House can approve impeachment with a simple majority, but removing a president from office requires a two-thirds vote in the Senate after a formal trial. That threshold makes removal extremely difficult.
Another path would be through the 25th Amendment, which allows a president to be removed if the vice president and a majority of the cabinet declare him unfit for office. Since Trump’s cabinet is made up of his own appointees, that option is also considered highly unlikely.
Democrats Push New 25th Amendment Bill
Still, Democrats are pushing new legislation tied to the 25th Amendment.
Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland introduced a bill that would create an independent, nonpartisan body to assess presidential fitness. The goal would be to give Congress another route to pursue removal without relying entirely on the vice president and cabinet.
As of Monday, 78 House Democrats had backed the proposal.
The push comes after growing concerns over some of Trump’s recent comments and behavior, including remarks about potentially wiping out “a whole civilization,” which alarmed several Democratic lawmakers.
- Kweisi Mfume (MD)
- Maxine Dexter (OR)
- Steve Cohen (TN)
- Daniel S. Goldman (NY)
- Debbie Dingell (MI)
- Deborah K. Ross (NC)
- Jimmy Panetta (CA)
- John B. Larson (CT)
- Henry C. Johnson Jr. (GA)
- Sylvia R. Garcia (TX)
- Shontel M. Brown (OH)
- Shri Thanedar (MI)
- Eleanor Holmes Norton (DC)
- Bennie G. Thompson (MS)
- Becca Balint (VT)
- Andrea Salinas (OR)
- J. Luis Correa (CA)
- Troy A. Carter (LA)
- Judy Chu (CA)
- Sydney Kamlager-Dove (CA)
- Mary Gay Scanlon (PA)
- Mark DeSaulnier (CA)
- Betty McCollum (MN)
- James P. McGovern (MA)
- Kevin Mullin (CA)
- Lizzie Fletcher (TX)
- James R. Walkinshaw (VA)
- Sam T. Liccardo (CA)
- Chellie Pingree (ME)
- Christian D. Menefee (TX)
- Gabe Amo (RI)
- Lauren Underwood (IL)
- Seth Moulton (MA)
- Emily Randall (WA)
- Pramila Jayapal (WA)
- Dwight Evans (PA)
- Sarah McBride (DE)
- Joe Neguse (CO)
- April McClain Delaney (MD)
- Al Green (TX)
- Bonnie Watson Coleman (NJ)
- Jared Huffman (CA)
- Melanie A. Stansbury (NM)
- Jasmine Crockett (TX)
- Ted Lieu (CA)
- Glenn Ivey (MD)
- Luz M. Rivas (CA)
- Timothy M. Kennedy (NY)
- André Carson (IN)
- Lateefah Simon (CA)
- Donald S. Beyer Jr. (VA)
- Doris O. Matsui (CA)
- Jerrold Nadler (NY)
- Yassamin Ansari (AZ)
- Greg Stanton (AZ)
- Jesús G. “Chuy” García (IL)
- Laura Friedman (CA)
- Joaquin Castro (TX)
- Wesley Bell (MO)
- Valerie Foushee (NC)
- Morgan McGarvey (KY)
- Zoe Lofgren (CA)
- Julie Johnson (TX)
- Seth Magaziner (RI)
- Mark Pocan (WI)
- Sarah Elfreth (MD)
- Diana DeGette (CO)
- Scott H. Peters (CA)
- Christopher R. Deluzio (PA)
- Rashida Tlaib (MI)
- Suzanne Bonamici (OR)
- Bradley Scott Schneider (IL)
- Robert Menendez (NJ)
- Stephen F. Lynch (MA)
- Suzan DelBene (WA)
- Norma J. Torres (CA)
- Salud O. Carbajal (CA)
- Mark Takano (CA)
